Iran–Israel War: Causes, the “Greater Israel” Plan, Global Impact & International Response

 

1. 📌 Causes of the Iran–Israel War

• Ideological and Historical Conflict

Since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Islamic Republic has refused to recognize Israel, often calling for its complete elimination. This decades-long enmity has shaped much of the hostile rhetoric between the two nations.

• Geopolitical Rivalry and Proxy Wars

Iran actively supports anti-Israel proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Houthis in Yemen. Israel has responded with targeted airstrikes, intensifying the regional war dynamic.

• Nuclear Tensions and Preemptive Strikes

Israel perceives Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat. In June 2025, Israel reportedly carried out direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and assassinated key nuclear scientists, escalating the crisis further.
➡️ Read: Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities – AP News

2. What Is the “Greater Israel” Plan? How Much Has Been Implemented?

• Concept of Greater Israel

The “Greater Israel” idea, often cited by far-right political groups, envisions Israeli sovereignty expanding beyond the 1967 borders to include parts of the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
➡️ Read: Greater Israel – Wikipedia

• Current Implementation Status

While not officially adopted, Israeli settlement expansions and nationalistic rhetoric have raised concerns globally and regionally, particularly among Arab and Islamic nations.

• Impact on the Iran–Israel Conflict

Iran and its allies use this expansionist narrative to justify their military preparedness and confrontational postures.

3. Global Economic and Political Impact

• Oil Price Surge and Energy Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil passes, is at high risk. Any disruption could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering inflation and energy shortages globally especially for countries like Pakistan and India.

• Disruption of Global Trade

Red Sea and Hormuz maritime threats increase shipping insurance and delay supply chains, affecting global trade and logistics costs.

• Financial Market Volatility

As war risks rise, investors shift to safe-haven assets (like gold and US Treasury bonds), raising borrowing costs and impacting emerging economies.

➡️ Read: Brookings on Mideast Conflict & Energy Markets

4. The Role of the United Nations

• Diplomatic Mediation

The UN Security Council can lead diplomatic efforts to enforce a ceasefire and open backchannel negotiations.

• Peacekeeping and Monitoring

The deployment of UN peacekeepers or special envoys can help monitor ceasefire compliance and protect civilians.

• Humanitarian Aid

The UNHCR and WFP can mobilize relief supplies for displaced civilians across conflict zones.

5. OIC's Role in Conflict De-escalation

• Political and Diplomatic Pressure

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) can unify Muslim countries to denounce aggression and demand a ceasefire.

• Hosting Emergency Summits

OIC can convene urgent summits to initiate regional peace talks and present a united front.

• Humanitarian Relief

OIC-led agencies like Islamic Relief can establish humanitarian corridors in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

6. Pakistan’s Strategic Role

• Balancing Diplomacy and Principles

Pakistan should utilize its seat in both the UN and OIC to promote peace while remaining diplomatically neutral yet morally assertive.

• Humanitarian Contributions

Islamabad can support UN relief missions, especially with medical supplies and refugee aid for affected Muslim regions.

• Regional Mediation

With long-standing ties to Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, Pakistan is well-positioned to mediate through Track II diplomacy and peace dialogues.

7. Long-Term War Consequences

• Full-Scale Middle East War

Groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq could escalate the conflict into a regional war, dragging in more countries and creating mass displacement.

• Risk of Nuclear Proliferation

Iran may abandon international agreements and accelerate nuclear development. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or Egypt could seek nuclear arms—triggering a Middle East arms race.

➡️ Read: Long-Term Iran Nuclear Risk – The Times

• Global Recession & Stagflation

High oil prices and supply chain disruptions can result in global stagflation, where inflation rises while economic growth slows, especially in developing economies.

8. How to End the Iran–Israel War

  1. Immediate UN Ceasefire Resolution under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
  2. Revive a JCPOA-like Nuclear Agreement with stringent monitoring.
  3. Disarm Proxy Militias through multilateral diplomacy involving Iran and regional players.
  4. Draft a Long-Term Peace Framework involving UN, EU, OIC, and neutral states with guarantees on sovereignty, arms control, and nuclear non-proliferation.

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